Entering the Post-Growth Era
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We must redefine our visions of the future in a baby-bust economy

![](https://assets.brentturner.is/_fitWide1600/9583/post-growth-era.webp)

The world’s population boom is coming to an end. [Birth rates are falling globally](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/04/05/the-worlds-peak-population-may-be-smaller-than-expected), even in places like China and Africa, which are historically known for high growth. Japan just hit a record low, with the government calling it a “[critical state](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/28/birth-rate-japan-record-low-2023-data-details).” While the reasons (like [antinatalism](https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-case-against-children-elizabeth-barber/)) are interesting, the impact is even more significant.

This decline isn’t just about closing maternity wards and shrinking schools. [Greying economies also struggle to innovate](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/05/30/its-not-just-a-fiscal-fiasco-greying-economies-also-innovate-less). Young minds are the engine of disruption, and with fewer youngsters around, economies might sputter. Even the US is seeing [states with low birth rates facing financial strain](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/12/the-long-term-decline-in-fertility-and-what-it-means-for-state-budgets).

So, what can be done? Policies to boost birth rates have a spotty track record. Sweden and France have [some success stories](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/01/21/fertility-why-france-remains-a-model-in-europe_6012434_7.html), but forcing personal choices often backfires. While [scientists can now grow a whole model of a human embryo](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-66715669) without sperm or egg, these artificial advancements may face human resistance.

In turn, baby-bust economies will adapt by investing heavily in education (think human capital for a smaller workforce). AI will help fill labor gaps. Immigration policies will evolve. Wellbeing and sustainability will be prioritized.

**The bottom line:**  
Growth has always been our society’s focus, but the fuel for that growth – more people, disruptive innovation, new businesses – is slowing down. This post-growth era calls for a rethink. Our future is less about “bigger is better” and more about innovation and efficiency. We must rethink how we define success, progress, and prosperity—all without needing relentless expansion.

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This post was included in _The New New_.

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